Validating Macquarie’s investment quality

Thursday, June 20th, 2019

After extensive work in recent weeks to validate the group’s investment quality, understand the reasons for the recent lower guidance and be confident enough the growth and returns upcycle will resume in FY20, we initiated a position in Macquarie Group (MQG) in the Clime Direct Model Portfolio.

In today’s report, we describe MQG and how we think about its quality for investors and summarise our thesis.

Business description

MQG is a globally diversified financial group providing clients with asset management and finance, banking, advisory and risk and capital services across debt, equity and commodities.

 


Figure 1. Business description
Source: MQG

 


Figure 2. MQG is globally diversified
Source: MQG

 

How this opportunity came about

MQG shares reached a record high of $136.20 on 2 May. The subsequent selloff was initially due to disappointing FY20 guidance. MQG guided to a small decline in FY20 earnings when Bloomberg consensus was for 7% growth.

 


Figure 3. Disappointing FY20 guidance given with FY19 result
Source: MQG

 


Figure 4. Why MQG guided slightly lower
Source: MQG

In summary:

  • FY20 base and performance fees are expected to be similar to FY19
  • Asset finance is expected to receive less revenue due to fewer loans
  • There is downside to bank interest margins
  • The trading businesses should have consistent customer flows
  • Impairments are expected to decline
  • Investment income is likely to decline.

If we exclude the higher gains from investment sales and the higher performance fees then there was no revenue growth from 1H19 to 2H19. This emphasises MQG’s reliance on market conditions for profit growth, a point MQG makes consistently in its outlook statements.
Investment quality

MQG is fairly highly leveraged, with a ratio of total assets to equity of 11.1 times on the last balance date of 31/03/19. Some of this leverage is due to ownership of Macquarie Bank. Banks are normally highly leveraged because the business model is to fund large volumes of loans with similarly large volumes of deposits and debt, with equity providing prudential capital. But bank loans were only 39% of total assets, so there is also substantial leverage across the rest of the group. This means loan and other asset impairments make proportionately large detractions from equity. For example, credit and other impairment charges totalled $552m in FY19 or 3% of equity of $18,180m at the start of the financial year.

MQG has:

  • Strong regulatory ratios
  • A strong and conservatively funded balance sheet with matched assets and liabilities, minimal reliance on short-term wholesale funding, well-diversified types of issuance and sources of funding, the ability to meet liquidity obligations during a year of constrained access to funding, and substantial surplus capital
  • Growing customer deposits

 


Figure 5. Macquarie Bank regulatory capital ratios
Source: MQG

 


Figure 6. Liabilities match assets; minimal reliance on short-term wholesale funding
Source: MQG

 


Figure 7. Term funding is well-diversified
Source: MQG

 


Figure 8. All entities are able to meet liquidity obligations during a year of constrained access to funding
Source: MQG

 


Figure 9. Recent and long-term average ROEs are well above our modelled RR of 9.34% and the group has substantial surplus capital
Source: MQG

Quality industrial and resources businesses have relatively low capital requirements and generate free cashflow while growing but the concept of free cashflow is not as relevant to evaluating the investment quality of a financial business. One main reason is the assets, being financial, do not typically require maintenance and growth capital expenditure; MQG’s cashflow statement does not have lines for either. Instead, the extent and use of organic capital generation versus the capital requirements of growth is more relevant. Financial businesses like MQG, which face a wide range of potential growth opportunities, need to choose ones which earn sustainable ROICs sufficiently above the cost of capital for the risks assumed, and they need to strike a dividend payout ratio which adequately rewards shareholders and leaves enough earnings behind for reinvestment in new financial assets.

MQG’s record here and on delivering genuine sustainable long-term growth is compelling. Over the last nine years MQG delivered:

  • Double-digit compound growth in earnings and dividends
  • and solid growth in book value
  • for a negligible increase in shares on issue
  • while gearing declined
  • and ROE rose 693bp or by 66%.

 


Figure 10. Nine-year CAGRs in key shareholder value metrics
Sources: Factset, Clime Asset Management

 


Figure 11. Nine-year trends in gearing and ROE
Sources: Factset

 


Figure 12. Nine-year trends in EPS, DPS, BV and shares on issue
Sources: Factset

The benefits of MQG’s risk management framework and culture are almost self-evident from the above record, which spans a decade of equity market rallies and falling bond yields interspersed with bouts of sharp volatility.

Investment thesis

In summary, the thesis for initiating positions in MQG is this is a high-quality business likely to continue delivering superior growth and returns, and the guidance disappointment at the 1H19 result combined with the current correction on equity markets have created a medium-term buying opportunity because the stock is inexpensive.

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Clime Private Wealth Pty Limited | ABN 87 617 235 168 Is a Corporate Authorised Representative | CAR 001263076 of Clime Asset Management Pty Limited | AFSL 221146

The information provided on this webpage and the rest of clime.com.au is intended for general use only. The information presented does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and advisory needs of any particular person nor does the information provided constitute investment advice. Under no circumstances should investments be based solely on the information herein. Please consider our Information Memorandum, Product Disclosure Statement and Financial Services Guide before investing in one of our products. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
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